Home ServicesSteady
Durham's trade market is running below neutral — soft renovator confidence, easing starts, and a cautious borrowing climate are keeping a lid on activity.
0 means no work at all, 100 means more work than the trades can handle. Scored monthly from renovator confidence, housing starts and permits, interest rates, homeowner spending, the trades labour market and rebate programs.
Durham Region's home services trades are operating in a below-average market this autumn. Renovator sentiment in Ontario has slipped well below the national neutral line, backlogs are short for a large share of contractors, and new residential construction in the Oshawa CMA is running slightly behind last year's pace. Put together, the market is quiet but not stalled.
The main drags are an Ontario renovation confidence score of 40.1 — the weakest region in the country — alongside softness in construction employment and consumer uncertainty about big-ticket spending. On the positive side, the Ontario Home Renovation Savings Program and a temporary enhanced HST rebate on new homes are both active and generating some retrofit and new-build work. Borrowing costs are on hold at 2.25%, which is affordable by recent standards, but the Bank of Canada has signalled it is watching inflation carefully and rate cuts are not expected soon.
What goes into the score
Ontario's Spring 2026 RMI came in at 40.1 — the lowest of all Canadian regions and down about 6 points from the autumn 2025 reading. Backlogs are shorter than normal for 41% of renovators, with consumer uncertainty cited as the main cause.
Source: Canadian Home Builders' Association · Spring 2026 · weight 25%
Oshawa CMA total housing starts were 414 units year-to-date through July 2026, down 2.4% from the same period in 2025. Single-detached starts fell 18.1% YTD while row housing rose 6.5%, and the total under-construction count was down 19.3% year over year.
Source: CMHC Housing Market Information Portal · Jul 2026 · weight 20%
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at the September 2, 2026 decision — the sixth consecutive hold. Financial conditions have tightened since July, long-term bond yields have moved up, and upside inflation risks have increased due to energy prices, leaving little room for near-term cuts.
Source: Bank of Canada · Sep 2026 · weight 15%
Total investment in Canadian building construction grew 8.1% year over year in July 2026, reaching $23.6 billion. Ontario led gains in single-family construction investment (+$93.5 million) in July, though multi-unit investment in the province continued to decline.
Source: Statistics Canada · Jul 2026 · weight 20%
Ontario construction employment fell 4.4% in 2024, and the CHBA Spring 2026 RMI found that 27% of Ontario renovators had laid off workers over the past year. The federal Job Bank rates the 2025–2027 outlook for construction labourers in Ontario as only 'Moderate', reflecting ongoing softness in residential building activity.
Source: Government of Canada Job Bank · 2025 (released 2026) · weight 10%
Ontario's Home Renovation Savings Program (delivered by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas) is actively offering rebates including up to $7,500 for cold-climate heat pumps, $1,250 for attic insulation, and $10,000 for solar.
Source: Save on Energy · Oct 2026 · weight 10%
For contractors
Work is available, but you need to go after it. Backlogs are short for many Ontario renovators right now, which means homeowners have more choice and less urgency to commit. Follow up on every estimate quickly — the Spring 2026 RMI found that consumer hesitation, not a lack of interest, is the main reason projects stall. Presenting a clear, itemised quote that references available rebates (heat pumps, insulation, solar) can help a hesitant client cross the line.
For now, retrofit and repair work is holding up better than larger additions or accessory suites, which scored the weakest of all project categories nationally. Focus marketing on smaller interior upgrades, energy efficiency work tied to the Home Renovation Savings Program, and maintenance jobs that homeowners cannot defer. Avoid overextending capacity — the labour market is soft enough that skilled help may be harder to retain if volume drops further.
For homeowners
This is a favourable time to plan a project. Contractor availability is better than it has been in recent years, wait times are shorter, and pricing pressure is easing because demand is below its peak. Get at least two or three quotes; contractors are competitive right now. Budget carefully and get the scope and price in writing before work begins.
If you are considering energy upgrades such as a heat pump, attic insulation, or rooftop solar, check the Home Renovation Savings Program at saveonenergy.ca before hiring anyone — rebates are currently active and do not require a full home energy assessment for single upgrades.
Planning a project?
Every trade on the Alliance is vetted, licensed, insured and WSIB covered, one business per trade, serving all of Durham Region.
More from the Alliance
- Durham Trade News: October 2026 Housing & Renovation Roundup · October 2026
The Busy Meter is the Home Services Trade Alliance's own monthly estimate, built from the public sources linked above. It is a general guide, not a forecast for any single business, and nothing here is financial advice.